February 2020 Macro Markets Blog Post
Recap Hello all, and welcome back to the February rendition of MacroSquawk. If you've been able to read the previous blog coming into 2020, all I have to say is, "wow, what a trip." It seems that the macro view on lower inflation expectations has been validated, and much quicker than I had initially expected leading to this month's and the first half of this year's views. Macro View Coming into the next few weeks however, I think the dominant theme is going to be a commodities rebound (more below). More importantly, I think the events of this January/February period with the virus have fundamentally shifted the macro landscape in a meaningful way. Chief among these is the prolonged nature of the manufacturing rebound that we are likely to see in China, and by extension perhaps the rest of the world. It seems now that for 1Q and maybe even 1H, the US will be the bastion of (moderate) global growth leading markets higher. This is as a result of lukewa...